North Central (Indpls)
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #3
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #2
Noblesville Regional Rank #2
Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 3rd place at State Finals
State Champion 7.2%
Top 5 at State Finals 86.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 99.2%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Zionsville Early Bird Invitational Marion County Championship Marion Invitational Eagle Classic Ben Davis Invite Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conference Nike Valley Twilight Invitational North Central JV Invitational Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/14 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/5 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 184 224 296 338 212 251 875 439 236 176 831 224 223 159 224
Team Adjusted Rating 224 239 239 212 251 184 199 236 176 184 224 223 159 224
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Zionsville Early Bird Invitational Marion County Championship Marion Invitational Eagle Classic Ben Davis Invite Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conference Nike Valley Twilight Invitational North Central JV Invitational Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
26  Maddie Rocchio 11 18:53 19:00 19:04 18:55 19:58 19:24 20:22 19:26 19:02 19:15 18:51 18:43 18:52
46  Mary Edwards 12 19:18 19:30 19:22 19:57 19:07 19:11 19:38 19:38 19:57 20:00 20:13 19:07 19:54
48  Elizabeth Rocchio 9 19:18 19:57 19:58 20:09 19:45 19:56 19:36 19:42 19:26 19:26 20:04 19:08 19:29
89  Emma Vatnsdal 12 19:42 19:46 19:45 21:25 19:57 19:31 20:24 19:14 19:39 19:30 19:44 20:02
97  Kaelina Matthews 10 19:45 20:37 20:21 20:04 19:59 19:52 19:55 19:21 19:57 19:25 19:37 19:40
100  Sami Tezera 11 19:47 19:39 19:53 19:43 19:49 19:23 19:43 20:08 19:44 19:44 20:03 19:37 20:02
187  Eleanor Hostetler 12 20:18 20:21 21:08 21:11 21:14 19:55 20:26 19:40 20:10 20:23 20:16 20:19 20:09
340  Claire Ekienberry 11 20:55 20:02 20:57 20:58 22:05 20:59 20:54 21:16 20:41 20:30
415  Sophia Tipmore 12 21:14 19:25 20:53 21:50 21:05 21:18
545  Charlotte Mallon 9 21:32 22:16 22:12 21:51 21:22 21:41 21:26 21:22 21:08
668  Tatum Houle 9 21:55 22:39 22:34 22:07 21:27 21:39 22:01 21:57 21:43
729  Anna Youtsey 12 22:04 21:28 21:47 21:39 21:23 22:02 21:45 22:26 24:45
760  Isabel Tipmore 10 22:09 21:37 22:16 22:26 22:14 22:07 21:51 22:00 22:39
788  Kelsey Rehmel 9 22:14 22:37 22:25 22:42 22:19 23:00 22:16 21:46 21:40
836  Elle Bryant 10 22:21 24:04 22:43 22:14 22:27 22:32 22:20 22:30 22:21 22:04
881  Ruby Rogers 10 22:27 21:31 23:42 22:06 22:44 23:55 22:30 22:04 21:51
958  Anika Cisco 9 22:36 23:37 22:19 22:19 22:13 23:09 23:12 22:30 22:21
967  Nyla Mitchell 11 22:37 22:40 22:09 22:19 22:31 22:34 22:36 23:51
1,020  Julia Eynon 9 22:44 23:37 23:26 22:36 23:11 22:34 22:09 22:41
1,312  Emma Rodgers 12 23:24 23:24 23:32 23:20
Madeline Billue 9 23:32 24:30 23:22 23:18 23:30
Lainey Deetz 10 23:35 26:20 23:48 23:55 23:12 24:10 24:27 23:15 23:09
Lilah Wilson 10 23:41 21:53 22:42 26:03 24:06 23:41 23:07
Sophie Farnum 10 24:01 23:44 23:46 23:36 24:20 24:47 23:15 24:32
Emily Taylor 9 24:18 23:38 23:22 24:07 23:27 25:16 25:20 23:47 28:57
Madison Jackson 10 24:21 24:10 25:29 23:28 24:31 25:22 24:00 23:58 24:39




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100.0% 3.7 185 7.2 17.9 28.3 20.9 11.7 6.1 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 100.0% 2.3 100 10.1 52.4 32.8 4.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.2 88 10.5 55.7 32.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 44 100.0 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Maddie Rocchio 100.0% 26.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.4 0.0% 81.1%
Mary Edwards 100.0% 48.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0% 30.5%
Elizabeth Rocchio 100.0% 48.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.0% 29.2%
Emma Vatnsdal 100.0% 83.1 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.7%
Kaelina Matthews 100.0% 88.0 0.0% 1.9%
Sami Tezera 100.0% 91.4 0.0 0.0% 1.3%
Eleanor Hostetler 100.0% 132.4 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Maddie Rocchio 100% 10.7 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 6.6 9.3 10.4 11.0 9.6 9.1 7.8 6.3 5.2 4.2 3.6 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 100.0% 100.0%
Mary Edwards 100% 20.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.7 4.3 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.2 5.5 5.1 4.4 4.4 4.0 100.0% 100.0%
Elizabeth Rocchio 100% 20.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.4 3.6 4.5 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.4 4.5 4.0 100.0% 100.0%
Emma Vatnsdal 100.0% 36.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.4 0.0% 97.8%
Kaelina Matthews 100.0% 39.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.0 0.0% 96.5%
Sami Tezera 100.0% 41.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 0.0% 95.6%
Eleanor Hostetler 100.0% 67.8 0.0 0.0% 49.7%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Maddie Rocchio 100% 7.5 0.1 0.9 5.3 17.4 19.2 15.8 11.5 7.6 6.3 4.5 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Mary Edwards 100% 14.6 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.8 5.2 6.4 6.2 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.7 6.9 6.4 5.2 4.7 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.6 100.0%
Elizabeth Rocchio 100% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.0 6.1 6.8 6.8 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 5.8 5.8 4.6 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.1 1.7 100.0%
Emma Vatnsdal 100% 24.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.3 4.8 5.6 6.0 6.1 5.8 6.1 100.0%
Kaelina Matthews 100% 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.3 4.4 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.9 100.0%
Sami Tezera 100% 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.8 100.0%
Eleanor Hostetler 100% 35.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Maddie Rocchio 4.7 0.0 0.4 7.8 56.5 24.6 7.4 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Mary Edwards 7.4 0.1 2.2 14.4 24.8 24.2 18.1 11.3 3.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
Elizabeth Rocchio 7.5 0.1 2.0 13.3 23.4 24.5 19.3 12.1 3.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
Emma Vatnsdal 11.0 0.2 0.9 3.3 8.6 14.6 22.3 22.0 17.2 8.0 2.5 0.3 0.1
Kaelina Matthews 11.5 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.0 10.9 20.1 22.5 21.4 12.2 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Sami Tezera 11.8 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.3 9.4 17.2 22.2 23.9 15.3 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eleanor Hostetler 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.6 15.0 31.3 28.0 13.6 4.9 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0